Literature review on fertility and mortality rate. The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics After a Natural Disaster
Several studies have documented significant declines in fertility, either overall or for more-affected relative to less-affected subgroups during conflicts accompanied by major social upheaval Agadjanian and Prata ; Blanc ; Caldwell ; Heuveline and Poch ; Lindstrom and Berhanu Thus, tsunami-related mortality can legitimately be treated as a mortality shock at the local area level. Using retrospective birth histories collected in for women ages 15—74the authors documented a sharp decline in the total fertility rate between anda near doubling between and to levels above the prewar rate, and then a decline.
To provide empirical evidence on the extent of both individual and community-level mechanisms, major festival in malaysia essay study the effects of mortality exposure on fertility after a large-scale unanticipated natural disaster: By contrast, despite predictions of a post—September 11 baby boom in the United States Morin ; Scelfonatality data indicated no such increase Martin et al.
Specifically, the experience of mortality may shift preferences toward goals with intrinsic meaning such as interpersonal connection and community development rather than extrinsic goals such as amassing wealth and status Vail et al.
Fertility in Response to Macro Shocks: The longitudinal data supports estimation of whether a woman who lost a child in the tsunami subsequently bore another child, which speaks directly to the question of an individual response.
- The logic suggests that among other things, a renewed investment in family will emerge in response to an awareness of human frailty Fritsche et al.
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Rates for each of these outcomes rise and then fall, leading the authors to suggest that exposure to a life-threatening event prompted significant actions and measurable changes with respect to close relationships. Second, in contrast to deaths from war or famine, tsunami-related mortality occurred almost entirely within a few hours of the precipitating earthquake, making it possible to pinpoint timing.
Data from STAR allow us to relate the experience of mortality within the local area to the fertility of women who were living in that area at the time of the tsunami. Relatively few studies have sought to isolate the impact of large-scale mortality on subsequent fertility. Related research views fertility as taking on symbolic meaning in the aftermath of population trauma.
Second, where local area mortality was higher, women who had not borne children before the disaster were also significantly more likely to give birth after the disaster relative to similar women in communities with lower tsunami mortality.
Of course, births in the months following a macro shock may be reduced because of miscarriage. This empirical approach is more powerful than relying on temporal variation alone.
The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics After a Natural Disaster
Effects on fertility have been observed at both the aggregate and individual level. To the extent that a one-time event does not change expectations about future child survival, a fertility response to a temporary mortality increase cannot be attributed a hoarding motive.
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Preston outlined the pathways of individual replacement behavior. This literature considers settings where child mortality levels are relatively stable and volitional replacement is a response to an event about which parents can form reasonable expectations—an orientation with origins in demographic transition theory.
Isolating proximate mechanisms and disentangling whether fertility increases represent fundamental shifts in fertility desires or simply the realization of deferred reproduction are complicated when the precipitating events occur over multiple years and involve shifting spatial boundaries.
Aboutpeople died, and overwere displaced, losing their homes and livelihoods Athukorala and Resosudarmo ; Doocy et al. Follow-ups were conducted annually for five years after the tsunami. Abstract Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics. Results are mixed. STAR is designed to capture this heterogeneity.
We investigate the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. Other sources of information are used to cross-validate community classifications, including questions to community leaders on tsunami deaths, water inundation, and destruction; damage observations of survey supervisors; and levels of exposure to the tsunami reported by residents.
Using population-representative multilevel longitudinal data, we identify a behavioral fertility response to mortality exposure, both at the level of a couple and in the broader community. First, mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster were significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami.
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Alternatively, after the death of a child, couples may intentionally try to conceive. Other scholarship describes the pronatalist sentiment emerging from mortality shocks that disproportionately affect or target certain ethnic groups Borneman ; Jansen and Helms or hypothesize its existence in settings where a substantial fraction of the population has perished Heuveline and Poch One mechanism may work through risk-sharing at the level of the community or ethnic group, as has been described in some agricultural settings see Conning and Udry ; Geertz ; Grimard ; Suri ; Townsend It has been a challenge to establish a causal link between mortality and fertility in previous research, largely because of data constraints.
Demographic theory is less well suited to describe fertility responses to large-scale mortality events, such as war and natural disasters Hill Mortality status was determined for In some areas of Aceh, water heights exceeded 15 meters Umitsu Moreover, STAR provides evidence on the relationship local area tsunami mortality and subsequent fertility among residents of the area at the time of the tsunami, and thereby allows us to contrast the relative importance of extrafamily and intrafamily responses to a large-scale mortality shock.
The period of most dramatic increase occurs shortly after Vietnam took control of the country and the Khmer Rouge—imposed genocide was abruptly halted, leading the authors to conclude that the fertility increase was a response to the high levels of mortality. Comparing fertility before and after the earthquake for residents of areas affected by the earthquake with fertility of residents of areas that were not affected revealed greater post-disaster increases in fertility in affected areas.
The logic suggests that among other things, a renewed investment in family will emerge in response to an awareness of human frailty Fritsche et al. Instead, it may be that the replacement motive extends beyond those women whose children die and operates through social groups, such as extended families, networks, or ethnic groups.
Using retrospective birth histories collected in for women ages 15—74the authors documented a sharp decline in the total fertility rate between anda near doubling between and to levels above the prewar rate, and then a decline. Two other studies have explored fertility in the aftermath of high-mortality disasters. Such community-level effects have received little attention in demographic scholarship.
The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics After a Natural Disaster
Caldwellfor example, documented a fall followed by a rise in fertility for Russia, Spain, and Germany in the context of major disruptions before the s. If no original household member could be located, death information was derived from interviews with multiple people who were living in the community at baseline and by cross-checking rosters of the dead maintained in the community.
Aceh and North Sumatra were the provinces hardest hit. Thus, tsunami-related mortality can legitimately be treated as a mortality shock at the local area level. A mortality shock may lower population fertility over the longer term through other avenues as well.
Patterns and trends in fertility
The same approach was adopted using census data to examine the impact of the Bam earthquake in Iran. War has received the most systematic attention e.
Within the mortality-affected communities, rates vary by demographic group. Using a theoretical framework guided by work in psychology on stress and attachment, Cohan and Cole analyzed rates of marriage, birth, and divorce before and after Hurricane Hugo in affected and unaffected South Carolina counties.
The beast arg case study are excluded from our sample if no area in the district was affected by tsunami mortality, yielding a sample in which comparison areas those with no tsunami-related mortality are close enough geographically to be similar to areas that sustained tsunami-related mortality. How and when the psychological response to mortality produces family-building rather than family disruption is not well understood Cohan First, mothers who lost a child in the tsunami were significantly more likely to give birth again after the tsunami relative to mothers whose children survived.
Second, women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher, indicating that the fertility of these women is an important route to rebuilding the population in the aftermath of a mortality shock. It is important to note that application letter for reception in hotel of these events have caused large-scale loss of life, and thus may provide only limited insights into behavioral responses to the death of a substantial fraction of the population.